一龍馬/AI 情報站讀懂消息背後的脈絡
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François Chollet 認為 2023 至 2026 年多數 AI 進展指標接近指數成長,而同期 AI 資本支出呈略為超指數成長

中文摘要

他推論以外部投入換進展的系統呈現略低於線性的反應,長期不可持續。他主張產業必須以相應的指數級獲利封閉資源循環,這是個人模型詮釋而非實證預測。

一龍馬判讀

對投資人與經營者而言,提醒是獲利若跟不上資本支出,擴張節奏與估值假設都可能要下修。

原文節錄

François Chollet · @fchollet

Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential…

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Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential over the 2023-2026 period. Meanwhile AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential (i.e. the rate of growth itself is increasing). So if you model AI as a system that takes as input external investment and outputs AI progress, that system has a slightly sub-linear response. But super-exponential injection of *external* resources is not sustainable in the long-term. To achieve sustained exponential progress, the AI industry will need to achieve matching exponential profits -- it will need to close the resource loop.

收錄日期
2026-10-09
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2026/10/09 06:55(台北)